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Prediction for CME (2014-02-25T01:25:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-02-25T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5007/-1 CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-02-27T16:10Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 6.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-02-27T00:00Z Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2014 Feb 25 1446 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# The X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 produced rising proton flux levels and a CME. The proton flux levels will cross the 10 pfu threshold for >10 MeV particles in the coming minutes. Meanwhile, incoming data revealed that the CME expanded to a full halo CME with a propagation speeds above 1500 km/s. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As a consequence, we expect disturbed geomagnetic conditions but it remains hard to predict timing and magnitude as the CME has only a minor component in the direction of the Earth. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2014 Feb 26 1319 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# ... COMMENT: Solar activity has calmed down since the X-class firework of yesterday. Flaring activity in the past 24 hours has been at the C5 level in active regions NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50. For the first region, the activity corresponds to a (recurrently) activating filament which we expect to erupt at some stage. Major (M or X class flaring) flaring potential remains in various active regions, in particular NOAA1982-46, NOAA1987-Cat54 and NOAA1990-Cat52. The CME associated with the X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 expanded to a full halo CME. Propagation speeds above 1500 km/s were measured. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As this CME was not completely Earth-directed, we expect that only a glancing blow of the shock will arrive at the Earth, early Feb 27. Soon thereafter (Feb 28 late onwards) we also expect the influence of the fast wind stream from a small coronal hole that crossed central meridian mid Feb 24. As a consequence, we expect episodes of active geomagnetic conditions from early Feb 27 onwards for about 48 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 141, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Feb 2014 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 174 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 003 ESTIMATED AP : 004 ESTIMATED ISN : 125, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 26.85 hour(s) Difference: 16.17 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-02-26T13:19Z |
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