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Prediction for CME (2014-02-25T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-02-25T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5007/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-02-27T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-02-27T00:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2014 Feb 25 1446 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The X4.9 flare of Feb 25 00:49 produced rising proton flux levels and a CME.
The proton flux levels will cross the 10 pfu threshold for >10 MeV particles in the coming
minutes. Meanwhile, incoming data revealed that the CME expanded to a full halo CME with
a propagation speeds above 1500 km/s. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts
with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As a consequence, we expect disturbed geomagnetic
conditions but it remains hard to predict timing and magnitude as the CME has only a minor component
in the direction of the Earth.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
:Issued: 2014 Feb 26 1319 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
...
COMMENT: Solar activity has calmed down since the X-class firework of
yesterday. Flaring activity in the past 24 hours has been at the C5 level
in active regions NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50. For the first region,
the activity corresponds to a (recurrently) activating filament which we
expect to erupt at some stage. Major (M or X class flaring) flaring
potential remains in various active regions, in particular NOAA1982-46,
NOAA1987-Cat54 and NOAA1990-Cat52. The CME associated with the X4.9 flare
of Feb 25 00:49 expanded to a full halo CME. Propagation speeds above 1500
km/s were measured. Culgoora Observatory observed type II radio bursts
with speeds of 2000 km/s and 700 km/s. As this CME was not completely
Earth-directed, we expect that only a glancing blow of the shock will
arrive at the Earth, early Feb 27. Soon thereafter (Feb 28 late onwards) we
also expect the influence of the fast wind stream from a small coronal hole
that crossed central meridian mid Feb 24. As a consequence, we expect
episodes of active geomagnetic conditions from early Feb 27 onwards for
about 48 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 141, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Feb 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 174
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : 003
ESTIMATED AP : 004
ESTIMATED ISN : 125, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

Lead Time: 26.85 hour(s)
Difference: 16.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-02-26T13:19Z

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